That's a great question, so great that nobody knows the real answer. My eyes on the ground in China believe the most likely scenario is that the virus was an unintentional lab leak. The intentional leak conspiracy theory floating around doesn't make sense to me, simply because if they were going to do that they would have done a much more professional job, leaking it in some (name any major world city outside China), not in Wuhan. (I know most of the senior leaders personally. They are all trained engineers with graduate degrees. They are not dumb.)
Second, I don't think the story will ever be 100% confirmed, if only because the Chinese govt. restricts access to Wuhan. They have also developed a very sophisticated online presence to spin any stories so they confuse people sufficiently to lose interest.
Thank you very much for your reply. Perhaps I was too focused with my initial question. A better way to ask on my part would be; 'What could be the financial relevance of significant disengagement between the United States and China for small American investors?'.
Thanks for the clarification, Mike. I have advised investors for some time to stay away from shares in Chinese companies and companies listed in Hong Kong unless they are insiders with specific insights into policy there. The US and China are so intertwined that cutting relations would have severe impacts on both economies, especially in manufacturing, where they need our semiconductors and we need their factory output. In spite of the headlines, the biggest risk today is not the. Chinese property market--most of it is owned by Chinese investors. The big issue is Taiwan, the epicenter of the foundries that produce most of the advanced chips that US firms use to build 'smart' products. Both countries rely on Taiwan output so a military operation there would hit both countries hard. Fingers crossed that doesn't happen.
From my view, as a totally run of the mill 'grunt', I cannot get past the 'mismanagement' by our government leading to the vulnerability we now face. In any event history has a way to resolve such issues, with or without pain. By the way. I am so extremely proud of your involvement and the fact that we have similar childhood roots. A part of me lives vicariously though you.
I am learning so much from your posts. I appreciate how you can explain complex concepts in simple terms that I can understand. Next step for me; identify the best companies to invest in that produce real assets. Thank you very much!
Comments like yours are the reason I write at all. I live to learn myself and there is not greater complement than to hear that I have helped someone else to learn as well. Some of my ideas are not quite mainstream, as you know, because after starting my career as textbook-trained professor, I spent the next 40 years building businesses, investing portfolios, and traveling the world. Happy to know they resonate with you.
A very smart man once told me that you don't really understand something until you are able to describe it to people in the words they know best. That, to me is the challenge of writing (which is really, really, hard.)
Your question is the most important one. We can talk about strategy all day long, but you have to execute it by buying one asset at a time. I will write my next piece this week about how to assemble a collection of assets that give us some amount of safety and income with enough growth to keep our nose above the water level.
And again thank you for reading and for your kind remark. you are the reason I write.
Dr. Rutledge, in your opinion, will national COVID blame if assigned to China, lead to adjustment financially in a significant way?
Mike,
That's a great question, so great that nobody knows the real answer. My eyes on the ground in China believe the most likely scenario is that the virus was an unintentional lab leak. The intentional leak conspiracy theory floating around doesn't make sense to me, simply because if they were going to do that they would have done a much more professional job, leaking it in some (name any major world city outside China), not in Wuhan. (I know most of the senior leaders personally. They are all trained engineers with graduate degrees. They are not dumb.)
Second, I don't think the story will ever be 100% confirmed, if only because the Chinese govt. restricts access to Wuhan. They have also developed a very sophisticated online presence to spin any stories so they confuse people sufficiently to lose interest.
Wish I had a better answer for you.
John
John,
Thank you very much for your reply. Perhaps I was too focused with my initial question. A better way to ask on my part would be; 'What could be the financial relevance of significant disengagement between the United States and China for small American investors?'.
Again, thank you so much.
Mike
Thanks for the clarification, Mike. I have advised investors for some time to stay away from shares in Chinese companies and companies listed in Hong Kong unless they are insiders with specific insights into policy there. The US and China are so intertwined that cutting relations would have severe impacts on both economies, especially in manufacturing, where they need our semiconductors and we need their factory output. In spite of the headlines, the biggest risk today is not the. Chinese property market--most of it is owned by Chinese investors. The big issue is Taiwan, the epicenter of the foundries that produce most of the advanced chips that US firms use to build 'smart' products. Both countries rely on Taiwan output so a military operation there would hit both countries hard. Fingers crossed that doesn't happen.
From my view, as a totally run of the mill 'grunt', I cannot get past the 'mismanagement' by our government leading to the vulnerability we now face. In any event history has a way to resolve such issues, with or without pain. By the way. I am so extremely proud of your involvement and the fact that we have similar childhood roots. A part of me lives vicariously though you.
Thanks Mike and look forward to having coffee when I am next in town. John
I am learning so much from your posts. I appreciate how you can explain complex concepts in simple terms that I can understand. Next step for me; identify the best companies to invest in that produce real assets. Thank you very much!
Robert,
Comments like yours are the reason I write at all. I live to learn myself and there is not greater complement than to hear that I have helped someone else to learn as well. Some of my ideas are not quite mainstream, as you know, because after starting my career as textbook-trained professor, I spent the next 40 years building businesses, investing portfolios, and traveling the world. Happy to know they resonate with you.
A very smart man once told me that you don't really understand something until you are able to describe it to people in the words they know best. That, to me is the challenge of writing (which is really, really, hard.)
Your question is the most important one. We can talk about strategy all day long, but you have to execute it by buying one asset at a time. I will write my next piece this week about how to assemble a collection of assets that give us some amount of safety and income with enough growth to keep our nose above the water level.
And again thank you for reading and for your kind remark. you are the reason I write.
John