In Which Dr. John advises you to skip FOMC meetings but show up for earnings calls, suggests that asset prices are the right inflation index, and why you should bet against the Fed.
My good friend Steve Kohlhagen was not able to post the comment below on this piece so I have copied/pasted it here myself to make sure his remarks so you can see what happens when a highly respected voice offers critical advice to the people who prepare the numbers for the economic reports. Enjoy
John,
as you know, you and i are in violent agreement about this (and don't get me started on how GDP is a poor measurer of economic output/production/welfare).
you might be as amused as i was: i was on a SIEPR call about precisely the GDP issue and their (i think) excellent work on GDP+. i mentioned on the call that i thought the time had come for them to start publicizing their work and the inadequacy of GDP measurements because the public is largely unaware. there were a couple of government researchers in the meeting---Fed and Commerce i think---and they, literally, got angry at my observation. they asserted that they routinely inform Powell and other senior officials "all the time", so this problem is "very well known." when i suggested that this was an issue not known to the public, they got very angry at me (i'm not making this up) for suggesting they weren't doing their jobs! sigh.
My good friend Steve Kohlhagen was not able to post the comment below on this piece so I have copied/pasted it here myself to make sure his remarks so you can see what happens when a highly respected voice offers critical advice to the people who prepare the numbers for the economic reports. Enjoy
John,
as you know, you and i are in violent agreement about this (and don't get me started on how GDP is a poor measurer of economic output/production/welfare).
you might be as amused as i was: i was on a SIEPR call about precisely the GDP issue and their (i think) excellent work on GDP+. i mentioned on the call that i thought the time had come for them to start publicizing their work and the inadequacy of GDP measurements because the public is largely unaware. there were a couple of government researchers in the meeting---Fed and Commerce i think---and they, literally, got angry at my observation. they asserted that they routinely inform Powell and other senior officials "all the time", so this problem is "very well known." when i suggested that this was an issue not known to the public, they got very angry at me (i'm not making this up) for suggesting they weren't doing their jobs! sigh.
Swk