Black Swans will definitely go on the list. The interesting thing to me is not that black swan (rare) events exist but that we are always surprised by them no matter how many times they happen. At the root may be the idea that we have been trained to think of the world as dominated by normal, bell curve, distributions. In fact, most financial events exhibit power law distributions (more on this later) that have many extreme events.
The Black Swans Commeth???
Black Swans will definitely go on the list. The interesting thing to me is not that black swan (rare) events exist but that we are always surprised by them no matter how many times they happen. At the root may be the idea that we have been trained to think of the world as dominated by normal, bell curve, distributions. In fact, most financial events exhibit power law distributions (more on this later) that have many extreme events.
I would argue that "Black Swans" are the norm every 7-9 years in general - almost like a Kondratieff wave?