Wall Street Journal. Why Interest Rates Will Fall in 1982
Wall Street Journal. (1981)
Summary: The Wall Street Journal published this piece in the fall of 1981, when interest rates were at their peak. It is the first time I argued in print that interest rates are determined by investors’ arbitrage between tangible and financial assets, the idea that is at the heart of my analytical framework. You can download a PDF file of the Op-Ed by clicking on the image below or by clicking the following link. Download.
I had developed the ideas in this piece during the late 1970’s while working with Bill Simon and used them to guide asset allocation for GE Pension and other clients. Then I used them in the work Larry Kudlow and I did in 1980 and 1981 writing the Reagan Economic Plan. In the summer of 1981, I explained the framework to Irving Kristol, who asked me to write it down. He introduced me to Robert Bartley, who published this piece a few months later, and to Leonard Silk at the New York Times, who asked me to write an Op-Ed on the impact of disinflation on corporate and household balance sheets.
I hope that you enjoy the Op-Ed and welcome your comments.