NOTE TO READERS: I have just re-read David Andelman’s brilliant book, A Shattered Peace, and want to re-post this piece I sent my subscribers 15 years ago. There are lessons in the book that are of great value today for those of us who are trying to make sense out of the “shattered” geopolitical position we find ourselves in today. Yes, it is that good. I suggest you read it too. And you will want to subscribe to his substack newsletter as well.
I have been reading a lot of evolutionary economics articles lately, shares with Austrian economics and historical economics the view that developments in economics are fundamentally path-dependent. This is the fundamental principal of non-equilibrium thermodynamics which was the subject of my course at the Chinese Academy of Sciences last summer.
There is no better example of path-dependence than the tragic impact the flawed Versailles peace conference of 1919 had on the events of the 20th century. By carving up the world for political gain, Versailles set the stage for subsequent troubles in the Middle East, the Balkans, and Asia, and planted the seeds for both World War II and the Vietnam War. David Andelman, who I have had the chance to work with on our weekly Forbes on Fox shows, wrote a brilliant book on the subject, A Shattered Peace By David A. Andelman. Thought you would like to know.