20240716 Rutledge CNBC Fast Money
I had a chance to talk with friend and CNBC Fast Money anchor Carl Quintanilla about Trump's latest tariff proposal. Bad idea.
Our conversation made me remember a time when I ran into Carl in the lobby of the Beijing Grand Hyatt, long ago when things were going well in China. Not so today, as you will see in the short video of our conversation, above.
I have copied the talking points I prepared for the producers before the show below—typos and all. Hope you enjoy
Rutledge talking points
China growth is in the crapper (technical term).
Q2/GDP (+4.7%) a big disappointment. (5% target, Q1 was 5.3%, consensus was 5.1%.)
official numbers likely exaggerated.
Fixed Asset investment +3.9% in first half
consumer prices inflation near zero. June CPI +0.2% annual rate. PPI falling.
property market is the center of the storm.
home prices -4.5%
property investment -10.1%
consumer spending very weak
retail sales just +2%
imports -2.3%
very bad for consumer luxury goods
historic floods making it worse.
new US/EU tariffs not even in the numbers yet
“other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”
Xi Jinping’s 3rd plenum this week isn’t going to help.
370 Central committee members there but only 1 voice—Xi Jinping.
won’t boost growth
focus on consolidating Xi control after recent corruption issues in the party
lip service to urban/rural inequality
Trump election will make it worse.
big new tariffs, especially on EVs.
Vance very anti-China
Only bright spot is that Xi is the only winner in the Ukraine war.
China/Russia is a marriage of convenience—natural enemies
China will end up dominating Russia
Siberia?
nuclear warheads?
defense stockpiles reduced in US/EU/Russia. Only china still intact.